A decade following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and triggered chaos, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two respected journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of speaking events that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been clarified because then you find yourself with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is imminent, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or activists are willing to participate even with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, no writer supports unity or the current situation. Each composes two essays that aim for neutrality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case opposing it, gathering economic and social data, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions cover flags and symbols, taxes, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where the electorate report they support unity but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"The Irish government must work out what the proposal from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British question just as much as it is an Irish issue."
